If you've been following Florida politics this year, you already know the headline: the Florida House of Representatives passed a resolution in February 2026 that — if it eventually becomes law — would eliminate most property taxes on Florida homesteads. Completely. Gone.
For buyers considering a move to Estero, Bonita Springs, or anywhere in Southwest Florida, this is not background noise. It's potentially the most significant shift in the cost of Florida homeownership in decades. It could change what you can afford, how lenders underwrite mortgages, and whether the SWFL market heats up even further.
Here's exactly what the bill says, where it stands right now, and what I think it means for buyers and sellers in our market.
What Is HJR 203?
On February 19, 2026, the Florida House passed House Joint Resolution 203 (HJR 203) by an 80–30 vote, largely along party lines. Speaker Daniel Perez called it "the most aggressive legislation ever passed by a legislative chamber on property taxes in the history of the United States."
That's a big claim. Here's what the resolution actually proposes:
The Core Mechanic — Phased 10-Year Elimination
HJR 203 would amend the Florida Constitution to eliminate all non-school property taxes on homesteaded properties — meaning homes where the owner lives as their primary residence and has filed for homestead exemption. It does this through a phased approach:
- Starting in the 2027 tax year, the homestead exemption on non-school taxes would increase by $100,000 per year
- After 10 years of annual $100,000 increases, homestead properties would be fully exempt from all non-school ad valorem taxes
- School district levies are preserved — those taxes would still apply
- A floor amendment was adopted before the vote that effectively accelerated the timeline, making the final impact of HJR 203 resemble the more aggressive HJR 201 (immediate full elimination)
What It Protects
A key provision of HJR 203 prohibits local governments — counties, cities, special districts — from reducing their law enforcement, firefighter, or first responder budgets below their 2025–26 or 2026–27 funding levels (whichever is higher). This was added to prevent the obvious concern: that eliminating property taxes would gut local public safety.
What It Does NOT Do
- Does not eliminate school property taxes
- Does not apply to investment properties, vacation homes, or commercial real estate — only homesteaded primary residences
- Does not automatically take effect — it requires voter approval (see below)
💡 Key Insight
In a practical sense, HJR 203 targets the property tax burden on Florida residents who actually live in their homes — not landlords, not snowbirds with out-of-state primary residences, not commercial property owners. It's a targeted relief bill for Florida's full-time homeowners.
Estimated Property Tax Savings in Southwest Florida
According to a calculator tool cited by Newsweek, a homeowner with a taxable home value of approximately $281,000 could see their annual property tax bill drop from roughly $5,750 to approximately $1,950 under HJR 203 — a savings of about $3,800 per year.
In Estero and Bonita Springs, where median home values run significantly higher, the savings would be proportionally larger. Let's look at some realistic SWFL scenarios:
| Home Type / Community | Approx. Home Value | Est. Current Tax Bill | Est. Bill Under HJR 203 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdana Village / Bella Terra condo | $420,000 | ~$4,200/yr | ~$1,700/yr (school only) |
| Stoneybrook single-family home | $550,000 | ~$5,700/yr | ~$2,300/yr (school only) |
| Reserve at Estero pool home | $650,000 | ~$6,900/yr | ~$2,750/yr (school only) |
| WildBlue luxury home | $1,200,000 | ~$13,200/yr | ~$5,300/yr (school only) |
| West Bay Club estate | $2,000,000 | ~$22,300/yr | ~$8,950/yr (school only) |
* Estimates based on approximate Lee County millage rates. Actual savings depend on assessed value, exemptions, and final legislation. These are illustrative projections, not guarantees.
The monthly impact is where this really hits home for buyers financing a purchase. A savings of $2,500–$13,400 per year depending on home value works out to roughly $210–$1,115 per month back in a buyer's pocket. Even at the entry level on a $420K condo, that's a meaningful shift in monthly carrying costs.
Where the Proposal Currently Stands
This is where it gets complicated — and where buyers should be careful about getting ahead of themselves.
The Road to Law Is Long
HJR 203 passed the Florida House on February 19, 2026. That's step one of a multi-step process. Here's what has to happen next:
Step 1 — House passage ✅
Done. HJR 203 passed 80–30 on February 19, 2026.
Step 2 — Senate passage ⏳
The Senate received the bill the same day but referred it to the Appropriations Committee. As of early March 2026, no hearing has been scheduled. The regular session ends March 13, 2026.
Step 3 — 60% supermajority in Senate
The Senate must pass the resolution with a three-fifths (60%) supermajority vote — a higher bar than a simple majority.
Step 4 — November 2026 ballot
If the Legislature passes it, HJR 203 goes before Florida voters on the November 2026 general election ballot.
Step 5 — 60% voter approval
Voters must approve the constitutional amendment with at least 60% support for it to become law. No recent presidential candidate has achieved 60% in Florida.
Step 6 — Takes effect 2027
If approved by voters, the phased elimination would begin with the 2027 tax year.
The Senate Is the Bottleneck
The Senate has not embraced the House version. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Ed Hooper said the Senate's plan "won't be as generous" as HJR 203. Senate President Ben Albritton has been deliberately vague, saying only that "we're going to be having some big, difficult conversations."
Governor DeSantis, who has called for complete property tax elimination, actually sided with the Senate's slower pace, posting: "it's better to do it right than do it quick." He has already called for an April special session on property taxes, suggesting this fight continues well past the March 13 regular session deadline.
⚠️ Bottom Line
As of March 2026, HJR 203 has passed the House but stalled in the Senate. The regular session ends March 13. A special session in April remains possible. Even if it clears the Legislature, it still needs 60% of Florida voters to approve it in November 2026. This is not a done deal — not even close. But the direction of travel is clear.
What This Could Mean for the Southwest Florida Housing Market
Let's separate speculation from analysis. As someone who has sold 1,100+ homes in Southwest Florida and watched this market through multiple cycles, here's how I see this playing out.
The Bull Case — Why This Could Heat Up the Market Further
- Lower monthly carrying costs make Florida homeownership more accessible — especially for buyers from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey who are already motivated by Florida's zero state income tax.
- Mortgage affordability improves meaningfully. Lenders calculate PITI (principal, interest, taxes, insurance). Lower taxes = lower PITI = buyers qualify for larger loans or more comfortably afford the same loan. A buyer who was borderline on qualifying for a $600,000 home suddenly has more breathing room.
- The "total cost of ownership" story for Florida vs. the Northeast gets dramatically stronger. Right now we tell buyers: no state income tax, no estate tax, warm weather, lower housing costs. If property taxes disappear, that story becomes almost impossible to argue against.
- Demand from out-of-state buyers could spike. The moment HJR 203 looks likely to pass, expect a wave of buyers who were waiting to pull the trigger.
- Investment property owners and second-home buyers (who wouldn't benefit from the homestead exemption) may accelerate purchases of primary residences to lock in the exemption.
The Bear Case — Why This Might Not Be the Windfall It Looks Like
- Local governments losing $6.7–$18.3 billion annually will have to make up the revenue somewhere. The most likely mechanisms: higher fees, new taxes on non-homestead properties (commercial, rentals, investment), or cuts to services. Some analysts expect this to effectively shift the tax burden onto landlords — who will then pass it on to renters and to buyers of non-homesteaded properties.
- Property values could rise in response to lower carrying costs — meaning buyers might simply pay more for homes, with sellers capturing the tax savings in higher asking prices. This is a well-documented economic dynamic: reduce the cost of ownership, buyers bid prices up.
- HOA fees and CDD fees are completely unaffected by this legislation. In communities like Verdana Village, WildBlue, and Kingston — where CDD fees and HOA fees are a significant part of the monthly cost — the savings may feel smaller than the headlines suggest.
- The 10-year phase-in means full relief doesn't arrive until 2037. Early buyers get incremental savings, not immediate full elimination.
- It still has to clear the Senate, survive a ballot vote, and clear a 60% threshold. There's real risk this never happens — or happens in a much more modest form.
📊 My Take
The passage of even a partial version of this legislation would be a net positive for the Southwest Florida market. Lower carrying costs almost always translate to stronger demand. The market is already active — this could push it from active to very competitive. For buyers who are on the fence about timing: the window before this becomes law (if it does) may be the last chance to buy before prices respond to reduced carrying costs.
Mortgage Qualification Implications
This is the question I've been getting from buyers, and the answer is nuanced.
Mortgage lenders qualify borrowers based on debt-to-income ratios. Property taxes are included in the monthly payment calculation (the "T" in PITI). Lower taxes = lower monthly payment = potentially better DTI ratio.
Here's a simplified example for a buyer purchasing a $600,000 home in Estero:
| Monthly Cost Component | Today | Under HJR 203 (fully phased) |
|---|---|---|
| Principal + Interest (7% rate, 20% down) | ~$3,195/mo | ~$3,195/mo |
| Property Taxes (est. Lee County) | ~$525/mo | ~$211/mo (school only) |
| Homeowner's Insurance (est.) | ~$400/mo | ~$400/mo |
| HOA / CDD (community-dependent) | ~$300–600/mo | ~$300–600/mo |
| Total Monthly PITI + HOA | ~$4,420–4,720 | ~$4,106–4,406 |
A reduction of $314/month in the required PITI payment means a buyer's DTI improves — or that the same buyer can comfortably qualify for a higher purchase price. At a 7% rate, that $314/month savings represents roughly $47,000 in additional purchasing power.
That's not nothing. For buyers who are stretching to qualify at current prices, even a partial phase-in of HJR 203 could meaningfully change the math.
Important caveat: lenders will not change their calculations until the law is actually passed and in effect. You cannot ask a lender to underwrite a loan today based on future hypothetical tax savings. But once this is law and tax bills reflect the change, the qualification calculus shifts.
What Buyers Should Understand Right Now
My honest advice, after 22+ years in this market:
- Don't wait for HJR 203 to pass before buying. If you're buying a primary residence in SWFL, you were already getting the homestead exemption. The additional savings from HJR 203 are a bonus — not the reason to buy.
- Do understand that if HJR 203 passes, demand will likely increase and prices could rise. Buying now, before the legislation is finalized, may offer better pricing than buying after.
- Do pay attention to the Senate's counter-proposal. The Senate has signaled a less generous version is coming. Even a partial property tax reduction — say, a $100,000–$200,000 additional exemption — would be meaningful in the SWFL market.
- Don't forget about HOA and CDD fees. HJR 203 has zero effect on these. In new construction communities like Verdana Village, Kingston, and WildBlue, HOA and CDD fees are a significant part of monthly costs and are not going away.
- Do make sure you file for homestead exemption when you close. If HJR 203 passes, only homesteaded properties benefit. This is free to file, due by March 1 of the year after your purchase, and unlocks all property tax protections Florida offers.
Summary
- HJR 203 passed the Florida House 80–30 on February 19, 2026. It would phase out all non-school property taxes on homesteaded properties over 10 years.
- The Senate has not acted. The regular session ends March 13. A special session in April is possible but not guaranteed.
- Even if the Legislature passes it, Florida voters must approve it by a 60% supermajority in November 2026.
- If fully enacted, the savings for SWFL homeowners range from approximately $3,000/year on a $400K home to $15,000+/year on a $2M home.
- The market impact is likely positive for sellers and neutral-to-positive for current buyers. Demand could increase, and prices could rise in response.
- Mortgage affordability would improve measurably once the law takes effect — but lenders won't underwrite based on projected savings today.
- HOA fees and CDD fees are completely unaffected.
- The best move for buyers: buy in a community you love, file for homestead exemption, and treat any property tax savings as a bonus — not a reason to delay.
About the Author
Jack Mancini is a Keller Williams Elite Realty agent based in Estero, FL with 22+ years of experience and 1,100+ career sales in Southwest Florida. He specializes in the Corkscrew Corridor, Stoneybrook (475+ career sales — more than any agent in community history), Bella Terra, WildBlue, Verdana Village, and communities throughout Lee and Collier counties.
📍 9180 Estero Park Commons Blvd #9, Estero FL 33928
📞 (239) 218-2685 · ✉️ jack@jackmancini.com · 🌐 jackmancini.com